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Concept

Bayes' theorem

The image features a cloudy sky with the text "Bayes' theorem" prominently displayed in the center, symbolizing the concept of updating probabilities based on new evidence.

A mathematical formula for determining conditional probability, named after Thomas Bayes. It describes how to update the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence. The theorem provides the formal mathematical foundation for why switching doors in the Monty Hall problem is the correct strategy.

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